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PFDC - Houston, With increasing conflict within members of IFF Transition Committee to select Iran’s next head coach, Ghotbi’s "supporting cast" are bringing his name up more and more to promote him as Iran’s National Team head coach.

Ghotbi has shown to have good knowledge of football, and he is known to understand the game well, thanks to his years as an analyst. Such characteristics perhaps fits him well to take his first head coaching job in one of many Iranian local clubs to demonstrate his true potentials as a head coach, particularly through few years of hot and cold days.

However, when the subject of national team head coaching job becomes associated with his name, the warning bells start to sound as such an important position in national football is not a place for individuals with so many unknown factors.

Afshin Ghotbi could possibly be a candidate to help a head coach that selects him as his staff/analyst in a national team, but that is where his experience at this point appoints him.

Ghotbi and Perspolis
Ghotbi has done well with his club Perspolis. Without going to extreme in either direction, his results at this point however, is not what is being "advertised" to be.

While Ghotbi's role in Perspolis success is undeniable, nevertheless, many factors have equally (if not more) have contributed to this success.
 

- Before Ghotbi's arrival, a team of staff that included a highly educated trainer, Alireza Marzban, carefully selected a set of high profile players (relative to IPL) to form the most complete squad in IPL this season. They spent near two months training them, and prepared them for the season before Ghotbi's arrival.


- For the first time in a decade, a good management with strong political ties that goes all the way to presidential office, has managed the side issues that is usually surrounding the red and blues, and has been able to control the financial troubles very well.


- But more than anything else, the unfair battle in IPL that currently weighs heavily in favor of Perspolis is undermining the results that in first glance seem to be impressive. Perhaps a more careful review of such results actually proves Ghotbi to be far from proving himself in such a short time to be elevated to Iran's national team head coaching job.


Especially with such important and critical tournament such as World Cup qualifiers approaching, IFF should be very careful on selecting the appropriate coach without being distracted by media propaganda.


Micro Review of Results


Perspolis' performance this season could be divided into two parts:


-The first three weeks of the season when Ghotbi had just arrived to take over a team that was trained by others. They were playing different formation and style that was not approved by Ghotbi.


-The remaining matches in which Ghotbi asserted his school and changed the formation to repair what he saw as "problems".


First Three Weeks


Below are the quick summary of the first three weeks for Perspolis (hosting teams are listed first):

Week 1: Sanat Naft 2 Perspolis 3

Week 2: Perspolis 2 Pegah 0

Week 3: Abumoslem 0 Perspolis 3

8 goals scored, 2 goals conceded

Goal Difference: +6

2 away games, 1 home game in Azadi,
3 wins out of three matches


After First Three Weeks


Before listing the results for the remaining weeks, it is equally important to list some of Perspolis players with experience in national team (in different levels).

Roudbarian: National Team starter in Asian Cup, Olympic team starter in Asian Games, member of National Team for several years.


Vaezi:
National Team squad in several occasions.


Nosrati:
National Team starter in World Cup as well as Asian Cup, Asian Games, and other National team matches for the past 5 years.


Heidari:
National Team squad in couple of occasions, Simoez' team player(mixture of Iran B and Olympic team) in WAG


Nouri:
National Team player


Rezaei:
National Team player, recent Olympic Team starter in Asian Games.


Bagheri:
National Team starter for many years, played in World Cup and Asian Cup, has played in Bundesliga and EPL, and carries a load of experience but perhaps reaching end of his career. Team leader


Ahsoubi:
Iran B starter, winner of "Most talented newcomer of IPL" last season


Aghaei:
National team squad


Vahedi:
National team starter for many years, and arguably one of the best, if not the best Iranian player in the league. The most effective player of IPL this season up to now.


Khalili:
Yet to have national team cap but a key player for Saipa's championship last year and Perspolis this year and most likely candidate for upcoming national team matches. The best scorer of IPL this season up to now, and arguably one of the best finishers if not the best finisher in IPL for the past two seasons.


Badamaki:
National team player


Fatemi:
Former National team player


Khorsandi: 
Recent Olympic team player


*Note: To avoid confusion, foreign players of Perspolis and others teams have been omitted.


Below are the results from week 4. The opponents' starting 11 have been listed along to compare to that of Perspolis squad in terms of players' quality. The important factor in such comparison is to note the quality of both sides in relative to IPL standard, and certainly not in absolute value or in relation to international standard.
 

*Players of other teams with asterisks next to them have been either national team players or have recently played for Olympic teams:


Week 4 in Azadi: Perspolis 0 Rahahan 0

Kasparov, Ebrahim Karimi*, Nourmohamadi, Rahimi, Mohamad, Taghavi, Tartar, Jamshidian, Mikhtarian, Nourmohammadi, Hatami Coach: Misaghian


Week 5 in Azadi: Perspolis 2 Peykan 1

Moradi, Memar, Khosravi, Mohamadi, Rezapour, Tahmasbi, Dariush Yazdani*, Azizmohamadi*, Khangoli, Farazandeh, Heidari Coach: Darabinian


Week 6 in Azadi: Perspolis 3 Sepasi 3

Susha Makani*, Nisaani, Sabri, Amiri, Mousavi, Dehghan, Karami, Shiri, Mohammadi Tahmasbi, Khaleghifar Coach: Peyrovani


Week 7 in Hamedan: Pas 1 Perspolis 2

Tomich, Mirabi, Khooraj, Esmail Nazari*, Mostafa Chatrabgoon*, Mohammad Alavi*, Ahmadzadeh, Yadolah Akbari*, Khosro Heidari*, Ovooja, Ekhtiarovich Coach: Begovich


Week 8 in Azadi: Perspolis 2 Zobahan 1

Sadeghi, Ahmadi, Mostafa Salehinejad*, Talebi, Mohammadpour, Salsali, Mensah, Esfahani, Mosalman, Mansouri, Amraei* Coach: Jorjovich


Week 9 in Azadi: Perspolis 1 Esteghlal 1

Talebloo*, Sadeghi*, Ghorbani*, Navazi*, Manei*, Montazeri*, Pouladi*, Jabbari*, Farhad Majidi*, Ravankhah*, Borhani* Coach: Hejazi


Week 10 in Azadi: Perspolis 3 Esteghal Ahvaz 2

Salari, Mojtaba Shiri*, Jalalisabet, Hassan Mahini*, Haghipour, Haghi, Hamoodi*, Bigdeli, Ramezani, Taheri*, Meidavoodi* Coach:Karimi


Week 11 in Anzali: Malavan 1 Perspolis 1

Ghalomalizad, Salarzadeh, Tamini, Niknazar, Maziar Zareh*, Ramezani, Sadeghi, Pourgholami, Yousefzadeh, Khodamoradi, Rafkhaei Coach: Ahmadzadeh


Week 12 in Azadi: Perspolis 1 Mes 0

Mehdi Rahmati*, Ebrahimi, Jalal Omidian*, Ghanizadeh, Ghanizadeh, Rajabi, Rasoul Navidkia, Toranho, Khadabandehloo, Molaei, Zaldon Coach: Kazemi


Week 13 in Kermanshah: Shirin Faraz 0 Perspolis 0

Yousefi, Dragsovich, Ensafi, Tabrizi, Mohammadpour, Panahi, Aghamohammdi, Zafarani, Jakiteh, Omidi, Mikaeeli Coach: Fekri


Week 14 in Azadi: Perspolis 1 Saipa 0

Memarzadh, Jalal Hoseini*, Traore, Gholamnejad, Zanidpour, Ebrahim Sadeghi*, Ashoorizad, Sharifinasab, Ashtiani, Amir Vaziri*, Alvez Coach Daei


Week 15 in Shiraz: Bargh 0 Perspolis 1

Raul, Gholamzadeh, Hashemi, AbedinNejad, Afand, Sasani, Mohammadi, Karimian, Karamian, Mehdi Shiri*, Shahram Goudarzi* Coach: Yavari


Week 16 in Azadi: Perspolis 2 Saba 2

Tolia, GolMohammadi*, Morteza Asadi*, Beigi, Hamid Farzaneh*, Shokouh, Adel Kolahkaj*, Bayat, Rezaei, Abasfard, Hatami Coach: Ziaei


Summary:
 


7 wins, 6 ties against Rahahan, Sepasi, Esteghlal, Malavan, Shirin Faraz, Saba

9 games in Azadi, 4 away games against Pas, Malavan, Bargh, ShirinFaraz.

Away games: 2 wins 2 ties

Home games: 5 wins 4 ties


- All away games played in stadiums with less than 20k capacity. Home games in Azadi with 100k capacity.


- Other teams' extra motivation to play against Perspolis at best can be traded off with playing in Azadi. Eventhough, extra motivation is not always enough to overcome lack of sufficient talent. Nevertheless, the traveling and fatigue factor remains to favor Perspolis.


- Not even one match has ended with more than one goal advantage in favor of Perpsolis despite such advantages in players quality.
 

19 goals scored, Average about 1.5

12 goals conceded, Average about 1

+7 Goal difference, Average: about 0.5 -- Only one more than first three weeks (+6)


-None of the coaches listed for other teams qualifies to be an international coach at this point. Certainly, none can be compared to what is expected of coaches of higher quality in international matches against Iran's national team. So are the level of players to play against.


- Ghotbi's team is yet to play against team of players with similar quality or more, and to compete against an international head coach with means to prepare well against his team. Perhaps Saba, Esteghlal Tehran, and Esteghlal Ahvaz are the only teams that come close to Perspolis in terms of players talent. Perspolis tied two of them and won against one with last minute score.


Avoiding extreme in either direction


It is important to mention that the above analysis does not indicate Ghotbi not to be a "good coach". It is simply too soon, and certainly unfair with such advantages to judge his quality at this point.


One must note that despite having many advantages in favor of Perspolis, still some coaches of lesser quality that Perspolis has seen in the past 4-5 years could have possibly re-arranged these players, played 3-5-2(!) with these players, and had lost a few games to struggle in middle of standing.


After all, Ghotbi's team remains to be undefeated. So, credit to Ghotbi to produce "what was expected" of such huge advantage but nothing more or less, and certainly not a resume to qualify him as the national team head coach at this point.


And last but not least, one wonders:


- What if Ghotbi was in charge of Rahahan or Sepasi or some of other weaker teams that tied against Perspolis, and instead, their coach was in charge of Perspolis? Would Ghotbi achieve the same result or better as they have with their weak squad? And would other "relatively" better coaches of IPL achieve the same or better with this Perspolis?


- Can success in IPL be a good reference to judge a coach's qualification for international stage? Wasn't that the criteria to select Amir Ghalenoei for international stage?

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